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| Investors monitor stock market movements at HOSE. Illustrative photo: Hua Chung/Vietnam News Agency |
According to Maybank Securities (MBKE), this is a positive development that helps stabilize the financial market and paves the way for foreign capital to return to Vietnam in the second half of 2025.
In terms of readiness, MBKE noted that most of Vietnam’s export-oriented businesses have already made certain preparations. Many are proactively negotiating cost-sharing mechanisms with U.S. importers, adjusting pricing structures, and optimizing their supply chains to maintain competitiveness.
Additionally, the trend of diversifying export markets is being strongly promoted to reduce dependency on any single market. With structural advantages such as a developed manufacturing base, 17 free trade agreements (FTAs), competitive labor costs, and a population of nearly 100 million, Vietnam is expected to remain an attractive destination for international capital in the foreseeable future.
In the stock market, MBKE believes that the trade agreement has removed a major uncertainty, enabling investors to refocus on fundamental factors such as domestic growth prospects and corporate earnings.
MBKE continues to recommend prioritizing dividend-paying stocks, as well as sectors supported by investment structure and stimulus packages, including information technology, logistics, aviation, real estate, consumer goods, and steel.
Chief Economist and Director of SSI Research (SSI Securities Corporation), Pham Luu Hung, commented that this is a “very positive signal”, especially as Vietnam becomes the third-largest U.S. trading partner to reach a preliminary tariff agreement, an important step toward elevating its international trade position.
“If the new tariff rates are coupled with favorable rules of origin, this could serve as a stable foundation, not just a temporary fix”, Hung stated. He also emphasized that a key aspect to monitor is the July 9th deadline marking the end of the 90-day negotiation round.
“We should not only be concerned with tariff levels but also closely monitor the rules of origin. The lesson from the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) shows that if the rules of origin are too stringent, businesses may find it difficult to benefit from lower tariffs”. Mr. Hung said.
Vietnam’s stock market is also reacting positively to the new developments. As of the July 2nd trading session, the VN-Index closed at 1.384,59 points, its highest level in over three years. The last time the index reached a comparable level was on April 20th, 2022, when it closed at 1.384,72 points. The VN-Index reclaiming its April 2022 high reflects improving market sentiment, stronger capital inflows, and high expectations for Q2 earnings, market reclassification progress, and the potential return of foreign investment in the second half of 2025.
During the morning session on July 3, the market maintained a positive trading state despite slight volatility early on. The VN-Index recovered and surpassed the 1.390-point mark. By the end of the morning session, the VN-Index had risen by 7,19 points to 1.391,78.
On the international market, Nike shares, of which 50% of footwear and 30% of apparel are produced in Vietnam, rose 4% in the most recent Wall Street session. This reflects global investor confidence in the stability of Vietnam’s supply chain following the agreement.
According to MBKE’s forecast, the profit growth of listed companies for the 2025 fiscal year is projected at 15.1% year-on-year, supported by stable export performance and strong domestic demand.
With trade risks easing, the outlook for Vietnam’s stock market in the second half of the year is considered promising, as investor sentiment gradually stabilizes and foreign capital is expected to return soon.